In the post-Coronavirus economy, where are the smart investments?

In the post-Coronavirus economy, where are the smart investments?

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Ben1080-1024x668 In the post-Coronavirus economy, where are the smart investments?

colour544x544-300x300 In the post-Coronavirus economy, where are the smart investments?

The covid19 crisis has turned into a major economic crisis. However, some positive evolutions have been noticed in the last weeks and we can now see light ahead at the end of the tunnel even if the tunnel is still quite long. 

At Finscoms, we are positioned between investor and investee acting for both and as such we have our ear to the ground. This gives us a unique opportunity to share with you what we are currently hearing from our extensive and diverse network. What are our investors seeking? What are the sectors that they believe will present the best upward trends in the coming months? This is not deep market research or investment advice. This is simply a summary of the investment sentiment in our circles over the last few days. We think this could be valuable for you to integrate into your own analysis.

Please react and share your comments with us!

Covid19 has not stopped investors searching for targets and sourcing deals. The PE funds and the wider investment community are cash rich and dry powder has probably reached record highs. Here are three sectors that many are discussing:

  • Telecom / Digital: Covid19 has boosted the use of all kind of digital technologies. From home leisure, home working, but also all social media, digital collaboration, … as well as “digital health”, “security and tracking”, … The move towards a digital era has significantly sped up and will probably remain the norm after the pandemic. This situation has shown that there are bottlenecks in infrastructure where more capacity is needed now, even before IOT and 5G. Netflix and other streaming providers have reduced the quality of their data to reduce the impact on the network. More investments will be needed in this area to strengthen the capacity.
  • Renewable energies: one positive aspect of this pandemic is that it has highlighted very concretely our dependence on the world and nature. The strong demand of investors towards the Energy sector that we had before the confinement has not been reduced. However, it has shifted: Oil & Gas projects have stopped due to over-capacity and some investors have directed their investments towards Renewable Energy “projects”.
  • Hospitality: this sector has been very badly hit … and it will probably continue to be so for the next few months. A recovery won’t happen in the short term, the horizon/timeline will probably be next year. However as soon as a vaccine and confinement is behind us, this industry will probably recover sharply: after months of privation people will spend a lot in the leisure sector. Undoubtedly, it means that many firms will have an urgent need for cash for the next 12 to 18 months, with a positive prospect after this period. Making this sector an ideal target for distressed finance!

On the project side, the impact of Covid19 has now more than ever meant that there is an emphasis on the quality of the project. Like in any difficult period the weakest will die and the strongest will survive. There are of course many criteria to identify and consider which will deem whether a project will survive. Given Finscoms’ positioning, we have noticed that the role of the communication of the value proposition and its uniqueness has become vital. More than ever, projects who want to have a chance to succeed need to stand out of the crowd and communicate a strong message through first class presentation. Given the extraordinary times we are in, the knee jerk reaction is to reduce or even cut out all marketing when the reality is those that invest further in their marketing and communications are better placed when restrictions are finally lifted. Give yourself a running restart.

The projects with a strong vision and a strong team have understood that the communication is key in their efforts to reach their audience (clients or investors): they are still investing to raise their profile. Others, less mature projects, the weakest ones, have made another choice and have reduced their spending … or even stopped their project!

Finscoms.com is a consulting firm helping our clients connect with all kind of financial services suppliers. We are sourcing investments targets worldwide for our investors with a particular focus on Europe. We have a portfolio of around 100 projects (Telecom, space, blockchain, biotechnologies, infrastructure, transportation, logistics,…) and around 300 real estate opportunities.

Benoît Egée, Co-Managing Partner

mkt@finscoms.com  

+353 1202 4444

Information about Benoît

Connect with Benoît via LinkedIn


What are the resilient assets in this Covid19 crisis?

What are the resilient assets in this Covid19 crisis?

The View

CVD1080-1024x576 What are the resilient assets in this Covid19 crisis?

 

colour544x544-300x300 What are the resilient assets in this Covid19 crisis?As the World attempts to contain Covid-19 and hinder global escalation, markets have recalibrated in the face of a potential global recession whilst monitoring the shocks to supply and demand. Market sentiment is that we will see virus case escalation in the second quarter with cases rising until May. The subsequent months will see significant disruption to supply and demand before a rebound later this year.

For this rebound to occur, first we would have to see a substantial decrease in fatalities within red zones, and a slowdown in new cases across all major economies. Central banks would need to implement emergency interest rate cuts and coordinate to keep lending channels operating (the Federal Reserve has already made cuts and ECB’s TLTROs are set to be sub-zero), stimulus plans at national and international levels introduced (e.g. ECB’s €750billion Eurozone financial package and the US administration are to sanction more than $1trillion) and other fiscal authorities to bring about quantitative easing measures. These measures are intended to avoid a more dramatic scenario where the health problem will be followed by a severe economic recession with two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth and potentially thousands of bankruptcies. The indication is that once business resumes then the economy should see a speedy, sharp recovery. Fundamentally, periods of stock market corrections are often followed by markedly positive trends within six months of finding the bottom. Volatility in the meantime of course will be high.

What can investors proactively do?

 So, we should expect low growth and low interest rates into the second quarter and possibly the third quarter. There has already been a brutal repricing of assets so many are not from this point adopting a defensive stance feeling that the damage has already been done. Some sectors will prove to be more resilient, namely infrastructure and real estate, certain commodities may also perform well.

Infrastructure – typically regarded as a solid defensive investment with above average dividend yields. The benefit being that this sector is usually involved in long-term contracts often with governments providing reliable cash flows. China is expected to announce fiscal stimulus packages for infrastructure. Telecommunication towers should continue to see decent secular demand along with digital economies particularly those involved in remote office work, remote management tools, and remote networking. More data centres may be built and more fibre optic infrastructure put in place to cope with demand.

Real Estate – this sector has shown resilience in the past during uncertain economic times. The benefit comes from predictable and stable lease-based cash flow and would not be affected by near-term shocks to the global supply chain. Due to being less impacted by global economic conditions, healthcare, rental housing, net lease, and storage are among the most resilient within this sector. Hospitality will heavily be impacted and opportunities may arise for discounted assets in the coming months. Office demand will have to be reassessed as the confinement/lock down has obliged firms to quickly deploy business continuity plans sending their employees home. Employees will be more accustomed to working from home and even favour it – the individual and business standpoints could be aligned resulting in a decreasing demand for offices.

Commodities – gold of course is the typical safe haven investment. For base metals we know that there is an inventory overhang as demand from China halted. Once Chinese factories resume full operations base metals should recover. China also expected to introduce fiscal stimulus to autos and infrastructure which require vast amounts of base metals. Agriculture is to experience less impact than other sectors as consumption and production rates stay level.

For many this has been a time to restructure their portfolio to a more defensive stance, whilst others have identified great value in the market confident that once Covid-19 is under control by Q3/Q4 major economies will see a rapid recovery. Either way, proactivity means its business as usual despite operating under lock down conditions.

Finscoms helps funds and projects to tell their story to a wider investment network. In these unprecedented times our clients are looking for guidance. We would like to share with you our thoughts. Please contact us to hear about how we can help you.

Benoît Egée, Co-Managing Partner

mkt@finscoms.com  

+353 1202 4444

Information about Benoît

Connect with Benoît via LinkedIn